Conservatives hoping to bring down the NDP government were in celebratory mode after the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative membership voted in favour of a unity plan over the July 22 and 23 weekend. There was resounding support for the plan, with 95 per cent of both parties’ membership showing approval.
The whole premise behind uniting was to defeat the NDP government, with PC leader Jason Kenney dismissing Premier Rachel Notley’s 2015 win as an accident, a blip in the radar of successive conservative governments, due to vote-splitting. If that was the case, the vote for unity would certainly be cause for some chest-thumping amongst conservative-minded voters, but it would be a mistake to think that now, the 2019 election will be a slam dunk for the United Conservative Party.
Up until now, Wildrose leader Brian Jean and Kenney have been in agreement on one point – the NDP must go. And with Premier Rachel Notley’s approval rating dropping below 30 per cent, and making her tied for second place for least popular premier (Kathleen Wynne in Ontario has the dubious honour of first), many Albertans obviously agree with the duo.
But what does the future of the UCP hold? Will it be able to stitch together the wounds of the past, and hold together an alliance between the PCs and Wildrose, treading a line that appeals to both parties’ membership? Some of the challenges are already emerging, as Wildrose MLA Derek Fildebrandt has been clear he doesn’t support Jean as the leader, while PC MLA and former leadership candidate Richard Starke says he sees no room for a moderate, centrist voice in the new party.
Cue Alberta Together, one of the new political action committees on Alberta’s landscape, which is looking to pick up the centre, potentially offering support to the Alberta Party. Alberta Party leader Greg Clark will hope to pick up disaffected PC members on the right and disaffected NDP members on the left.
Throw in a new potential party, comprised of Wildrose members who are unhappy with the merger with the PCs, and the political landscape begins to look even more fractured than it is now. In some ways, that’s not a bad thing – voters should have choices and not hold their nose and vote, but rather, vote for something they believe in and support. Of course, the NDP will be hoping that the economy picks up and the other parties remain fractious and disorganized so that it can sail into office again.
One thing is clear - the next election may only be taking place in 2019, but the battle begins now.
